Market Gains Leave Downtrends Intact

All the major equity indexes closed higher Thursday with positive internals on the NYSE and NASDAQ as NYSE volumes rose and NASDAQ volumes dipped from the prior session. All closed at or near their intraday highs. However, all the near-term downtrends remained intact as they failed to be violated. Yet, there was some encouragement for said downtrends to be violated as several of the charts saw bullish stochastic crossover signals generated and suggestive of more potential strength.

Meanwhile, the data finds two of the three McClellan OB/OS Oscillators oversold along with the typically wrong leveraged ETF traders leveraged short, also offering some encouragement. So, we are stepping out a bit on the proverbial limb with the speculation that more market upside potential will continue to be present over the near term.

On the charts, all the major equity indexes closed higher yesterday with positive internals as all closed near their intraday highs.

  • However, the gains were insufficient to push the charts above their near-term downtrend lines that remain intact until violated.
  • Yet, we are now speculating that some downtrends may see violations as the oversold stochastic levels generated “bullish crossover” signals on the , , , , , and VALUA.
  • Markert’s cumulative breadth also improved with the All Exchange, NYSE, and NASDAQ A/D lines moving to neutral from bearish.

The data also offers some encouragement, with the McClellan OB/OS Oscillators still oversold on the All Exchange & NYSE with the NASDAQ’s turning neutral (All Exchange: -56.1 NYSE: -69.85 NASDAQ: -46.11).

  • The % of SPX issues trading above their 50 DMAs (contrarian indicator) rose to % and remains neutral.
  • The Open Insider Buy/Sell Ratio slipped to 63.9%, staying neutral.
  • The detrended Rydex Ratio (contrarian indicator) is still on a green light at -1.6 as the typically wrong leveraged ETF traders are deeply leveraged short, staying on a bullish signal.
  • This week’s AAII Bear/Bull Ratio (contrarian indicator) rose to 1.57 and is now in bullish territory.
  • The Investors Intelligence Bear/Bull Ratio (contrary indicator) is 30.1/38.4 neutral with an increase in bears and drop in bulls.
  • The forward 12-month consensus earnings estimate from Bloomberg for the SPX dropped to $232.80. As such, its forward P/E is 17.2 and at a slight premium to the “rule of 20” ballpark fair value at 16.7.
  • The SPX forward earnings yield is 5.81%.
  • The closed higher at 3.29%. We view support at 3.08% with resistance at 3.48%.

In conclusion, while the near-term downtrends on the charts have yet to yield to buying pressure, the data, that projected recent strength, suggests more market strength may appear over the very near term.

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