Semiconductors: Sector’s Underperformance Testing Broad Market Resilience


In any bull market, it’s crucial to identify sector leadership. That helps us follow the trend for short periods and identify more significant inflection points in the long run.

Today’s focus will be on the tech-leading Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:). And as Joe Friday says, “The facts, Ma’am. Just the facts.”

SMH Monthly Chart

SMH Monthly Chart

As you can see in the first of today’s chart 2-pack, $SMH has traded in a bullish rising trend channel for well over a decade. The Semiconductors ETF broke above the upper channel resistance into 2021. And this breakout carried SMH slightly above its 261.8% Fibonacci extension level.

It is now retesting the 261.8 Fib and upper rising channel line (but this time as a confluence of supports). 

It will be important for bulls that this long-term leader holds at this dual support level. 

SMH/SPY Weekly Chart

SMH/SPY Weekly Chart

When we turn to our second chart, we see a similar theme. This is a long-term ratio chart highlighting the relative strength of the Semiconductors (SMH) vs. the SPDR S&P 500 (NYSE:).

Once again, we see semiconductors gaining strength from 2009 on. And, in the past 5 years, a solid rising trend channel has formed. But a recent pullback in this ratio has the sector’s leadership position tested, as the lower channel support at (1) displays.

So both the semiconductors chart and semiconductors’ leadership ratio chart are testing key support simultaneously!

Will support hold and maintain the uptrend intact? Or will support break and take semiconductors’ leadership with it? Stay tuned!



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