S&P 500: No Technical Sign Of A Bottom Yet

• SPX Monitoring purposes: Sold Long 3/3/22 at 4363.49 =3.27% gain; Long SPX on 2/23/22 at 4225.50.
• Monitoring purposes GOLD:  Long GDX (NYSE:) on 10/9/20 at 40.78.
• Long Term SPX monitor purposes: Neutral

Above is the along with its %B, “Rate of Change” (ROC) and top window the RSI.  When the VIX moves rapidly its a form of panic.  We use the %B, ROC and RSI of the VIX to determine the speed of the VIX.  When these indicators reach extreme levels than the market is near a worth while low. On the recent decline, none of the indicators reached ideal levels to signal bottom in the .  There could be a low here but our indicators are not in an ideal level to signal that potential low. 

The second window up form the bottom is the to SPX correlation.  When this correlation reaches above “0” (marked with red vertical lines for bottoms and blue for tops) the SPX has been near a reversal.  This correlation is not above “0” suggesting a reversal in the market is near.  However, panic readings in our TRIN, Tick and VIX are not ideal for a bottom here.

We have drawn a horizontal red line from the October low and market bounce below than rallied above on January 24 and February 24 which was a bullish sign. March 7, SPX fell below the October low and so far remain below, which is a bearish sign. To get a bottom form here we would like to see panic readings in the TRIN, Tick and VIX and so far that has not materialized which would suggest the October low near 4300 would be resistance.

The above chart is the monthly going back to 2010.  We have pointed out this large Head and Shoulders pattern in the past.  We did have a “Sign of Strength” (SOS) through the neckline of the smaller Head and Shoulders pattern which was the Right Shoulder of the Large Head and Shoulders pattern. Gold is not running up to the large neckline and may stall right below the neckline creating a consolidation that could last 3 or 4 weeks (noted in yesterday’s report).  This potential consolidation would build energy to power through the larger neckline.  This large Head and Shoulders pattern has a measured target near 3000 on gold.